New Assessments Uncover Lava Risks in Southwest Iceland
The Icelandic Meteorological Office has released a new evaluation pinpointing areas most exposed to future volcanic eruptions and lava flows across Reykjanes and parts of the capital region. Reported by RÚV, the findings place Grindavík and Hveragerði in the highest risk category. Grindavík is the only urban area facing a serious likelihood of both eruptions and lava flows — a distinction that sets it apart from every other settlement in the region.
Hazard Zones Identified
The assessment also flags certain industrial areas in Hafnarfjörður and Kapelluhraun as notably susceptible. The study covers a broad sweep of territory — from Reykjanestá to Ölfusá and north to Hvalfjörður. Most settlements come out as low risk, but a number of critical infrastructure sites sit in far more exposed positions.
The geothermal power plants at Reykjanes, Svartsengi, Hellisheiði, and Nesjavellir are all within vulnerable zones, as are key water sources at Kaldárbotn and Selhæðar. Transport and energy networks face exposure too: sections of the South Coast Road, parts of the Ring Road crossing Hellisheiði, and Grindavíkurvegur all fall within high-risk areas. Major power lines and the port of Grindavík are similarly at risk.
Built on extensive geological data and more than 47,000 simulations, the maps are designed as a long-term planning tool rather than a forecast of any specific future eruption.
For a country that sits atop one of the most active volcanic systems on earth, this kind of rigorous, data-driven assessment is less a luxury than a necessity — and these maps will likely shape infrastructure and land-use decisions in the southwest for years to come.
