The government’s new tax on nicotine pads and e-liquids is bringing in considerably less than expected — about 1.9 billion ISK less, to be precise. Officials had counted on roughly six billion ISK flowing into the national treasury, but the actual figure is looking closer to four billion ISK. That’s according to a memorandum from the Ministry of Finance.
The reason, it seems, comes down to a gap between what people say they’re doing and what’s actually being imported. Surveys show a striking rise in nicotine use — around one-third of men aged 18 to 35 report using nicotine patches daily, as do 21% of women in the same age group — yet import volumes haven’t moved in the same direction. The Ministry is now looking into why those two figures don’t line up.
In the draft budget proposal for the coming year, projected income from the tax had already been trimmed once, from an earlier figure down to 4.6 billion ISK. That estimate has since been revised again, with the current expectation sitting at 4.2 billion ISK.
Worth noting: the National Health Service’s October survey points to a slight dip in nicotine use compared to the previous year — suggesting consumption patterns may already be shifting.
